In Homer’s Odyssey, the Sirens used their beautiful, enchanting music to lure sailors to shipwreck their boats on rocky coasts. In financial markets, recent returns act as a siren song for investors. Every few years, a specific sector or theme catches fire and funds exposed to it post jaw-dropping returns (AI-capex now, IT/Pharma during Covid). Inevitably, a wave of capital flows into these “hot” funds while funds going through a period of underperformance see capital redemptions. We see this happening currently, with small and mid-cap funds attracting disproportionately large inflows while large-cap funds see little interest from investors.

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There is an instinct, present in almost anyone who takes their craft seriously, to want to learn from experience. Make a decision, observe the result, update accordingly. It is how surgeons get better, how athletes get better, how chess players get better, how most skills in life are built. Investing though is a poor fit for this instinct, and the eagerness to learn from one’s own past investments without first accepting that feedback loops in investing are weak, can do more harm than good.

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While the current news cycle is dominated by the Iran war, one of the biggest themes shaping market narratives over the last year has been the impact of AI across different industries and the accompanying threat of job losses. Earlier this year, stocks in sectors like software and IT services took a beating as investors worried about AI’s potential negative impact. IT leaders like TCS and Infosys have seen their valuation multiples de-rate from a 2022 peak of 35x+ TTM P/E to 18x today.

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While there has been a rise in market valuations in recent times, it has been exacerbated by the rise of superficial methods of justifying these valuations. Increasingly, investors, including seasoned professionals, are no longer valuing businesses using first principles. They are relying on second-order pricing constructs where price is justified by reference to other prices rather than to business economics.

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India’s recent regulatory supervision has been focused on limiting retail activity in only the F&O segment (220+ stocks), engendered by the explosive increase in volumes in this segment post COVID. There has been limited regulatory action to curb retail activity in 90%+ of the other actively traded 2500+ stocks on the exchange. Since COVID, most small and mid-cap stocks have seen a stratospheric rise. No one (investors, regulators or the government) is complaining as investors in aggregate have created wealth. The losses in specific pump and dump stocks are few and far between (especially in bull markets), and also not easily quantifiable. The bulk of the losses is deferred and will only show up as permanent erosion of wealth in the next bear market.

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In the late 1990s, Buffett and Munger faced a number of questions from shareholders regarding the lack of high-tech stocks in Berkshire’s portfolio. This was during the dot-com boom, when tech stocks surged, while Berkshire’s performance lagged the overall market. Below are some excerpts from Buffett and Munger’s responses¹ to these questions.

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The Indian markets have fallen 17%¹ from the top and many stocks have fallen significantly more than the headline indices. After a long time, investors are wishing they had done independent work on their investments. This may be a good time to step back and reflect on how investors are constantly influenced by a “barrage of bullish influence”. Without a healthy dose of scepticism, one may be sucked into making avoidable mistakes.

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“Obvious prospects for physical growth in a business do not translate into obvious profits for investors.” – Benjamin Graham

Investors often get asked questions about their exposure to the latest hot sector that is witnessing rapid growth – be it Electric Vehicles, Quick Commerce, Solar Module Manufacturing etc. It is presumed that such an exposure will lead to positive outcomes.

Continue reading The Growth Mirage: Why High-Growth Sectors May Not Yield High Returns →

In 2004, the Indian government reduced the long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax rate to 0% and the short-term capital gains (STCG) tax rate to 10%¹ on listed equities. By offering favourable tax treatment on capital gains on listed equities, the government sought to attract both domestic and foreign investors. The government introduced the securities transaction tax (STT) in lieu of the capital gains tax reduction.

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Base rate neglect or base rate fallacy is a cognitive error wherein we ignore the base rate or statistical data in favour of the anecdotal or individual information. We end up making judgements based on our assessment of the anecdotal information which has very little predictive value and we largely ignore the base rate which is far more useful. This leads to flawed reasoning and incorrect conclusions.

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